LOSING THE HERD

How a Border Closure Is Dismantling America’s Cattle Industry,
Handing the Market to Mexico, and Raising Questions Washington Won’t Answer
Information the American people have a right to know — with every claim linked to its source
July 2026

The Story, in One Breath

A flesh-eating parasite gave Washington a reason to close the southern border to live cattle. Fifteen months later, the parasite is here anyway — in Texas, hundreds of miles from the port that stays shut. What the closure did accomplish is quieter and far more permanent: it is dismantling the American beef industry piece by piece. Our packing plants are closing. Our feedyards are going dark. Our herd is the smallest it has been in 75 years. And the business we are losing is not vanishing — it is moving to Mexico, into the hands of the one company positioned above all others to take it: SuKarne, whose founder has been named in a Pentagon-commissioned report as a possible member of the Sinaloa cartel’s financial network. This is the story of how that happened, told through the record itself. Every claim below links to its source.

I. The Plants Are Going Dark

Start with the buildings, because buildings don’t lie. In January 2026, Tyson permanently closed its beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska — roughly 3,200 jobs and about 5% of U.S. slaughter capacity, gone. It was the first major permanent closure of the crisis, and Tyson said plainly why: an “acute shortage of cattle.”[2] The company now projects a beef-segment operating loss of up to $600 million for the year and calls the region a “supply desert.”[1]

Then the dominoes. JBS shuttered its Riverside, California plant (374 workers) and cut shifts across its Midwest footprint[2]; months later it announced the closure of its Souderton, Pennsylvania plant — another ~2,000 head a day.[4] Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at Fort Morgan, Colorado. Add a strike at JBS’s Greeley plant and the disruption reached a meaningful slice of national beef-processing capacity.

It isn’t only the packers. The feedyards that supply them are dying too. Lubbock Feeders — a 50,000-head Texas yard that fed more than five million cattle over 70 years and sourced 60–70% of its animals from Mexico — announced it will close.[6] Texas Cattle Feeders warns the closed border could cost the Texas-Oklahoma-New Mexico region roughly one billion fewer pounds of beef in 2026 alone.[5]

“Packer closes. Livestock auction closes. Feedyard closes.”— The domino effect described by industry analysts as the closure drags on

II. What We Are Actually Losing

This is not a dip. It is a structural amputation. The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it has been in 75 years.[1] The closure erased roughly 1.5 million head of Mexican feeder cattle a year — about a 3.3% cut to national supply[2] — and the animal has become the scarce, expensive thing everyone is bidding against.

The Coalition for a Prosperous America put a blunt title on it: America’s Cattle Industry Has Been Gutted. Retail beef is up 22% since January 2025; Choice beef up 27%; live cattle up 37%; weekly slaughter down 6.5% year over year.[3] Ground beef hit a national average of $7.85 a pound.[1] Consumers feel it at the counter. Ranchers feel it as an industry contracting in real time.

The thing to hold onto: every one of those closed plants, empty pens, and lost jobs is capacity that does not switch back on when a port reopens. A herd takes years to rebuild. A shuttered plant may never reopen. We are not weathering a storm — we are losing the house.

III. Who Is Winning: Mexico — and SuKarne Above All

Here is the sleight of hand. The border is closed to live cattle — but not to beef. While American feedlots starve, Mexican boxed beef keeps flowing north, and it has surged 23% even as our own plants close.[6][16] Picture it literally: while our pens sit empty, workers sort beef carcasses at an export slaughterhouse in Hermosillo, Sonora, bound for the United States.[7] USDA’s own report found the closure redirected about one million head into Mexican feedlots and lifted Mexican beef production 6%.[11]

And one company is built to capture almost all of it: SuKarne. SuKarne accounts for roughly 75% of all Mexican beef exports — Mexico’s largest cattle-feeding and processing company, and one of the largest beef packers in North America.[8] It was the first company in Mexico to move from selling carcasses to boxed beef, and trade coverage describes it as “equipped to expand its presence in the US retail market and beyond.”[9] It already shipped 110,000 tonnes of beef into the United States in a single year.[10] When the American market needs beef and American plants can’t supply it, SuKarne is the supplier standing there.

Mexico is not letting the moment pass — it is pouring concrete. President Sheinbaum announced an 831-million-peso program to build out high-quality meat production for Sonoran ranchers, framed explicitly as a response to the closure.[12] Sonora broke ground on a new livestock-industrial complex — feed, slaughter, quarantine — to capture value-added beef. Every dollar of that build-out is designed to make the shift permanent.

Even our “American” giant is foreign. JBS, the largest beef packer operating in the U.S., is Brazilian-owned — and it is riding out the crisis by leaning on its Brazilian and Australian plants to fill the gap while it closes American ones.[1] So follow the ownership: the market our ranchers built is being handed to Mexican and Brazilian companies, and the single biggest winner is a firm founded in Sinaloa.

IV. Why We Can’t Just Undo This

The damage compounds, and most of it is one-directional. A closed plant is often gone for good — the equipment liquidated, the workforce scattered, the permits lapsed. A national herd rebuilt from a 75-year low takes years of breeding, not a policy memo. Meanwhile Mexico is building the plants, the quarantine pens, and the export capacity to serve the very market we’re vacating.[11][12] Each month the closure holds, the handoff hardens.

The bill is already enormous. Beef prices at record highs.[3] Thousands of jobs erased across Nebraska, California, Pennsylvania, and Colorado.[2][4] A billion pounds of lost production in three states.[5] A domestic eradication program that historically saved the U.S. cattle industry an estimated $2.3 billion a year now overshadowed by a border policy working against it.[15] Run this out another year and “recovery” stops being the word. “Replacement” is.

V. The Cartel Question

Now the part no one in Washington wants to say out loud. The screwworm did not arrive on the back of an inspected, ivermectin-treated feeder steer crossing at Douglas. By the mainstream account, it arrived the way contraband always does — through illegal, unregulated cattle movement. CNN framed the comeback bluntly: a resurgence driven by organized crime.[13]

The industry coverage is even blunter. Beef Magazine: “The smoking gun points to drug cartel cattle. Call it narco-ranching.”[14] An estimated 800,000 head are smuggled across the Guatemala-Mexico border every year[14][16], entering with falsified papers and bogus ear tags; Mexican animal-health experts believe that smuggling helped bring the screwworm north in the first place.[15]

American ranchers have been pointing at exactly this. The people closest to the herd blame the illegal, cartel-linked cattle trade — not the legal one. A coalition of nearly 200 ranch and farm groups pressed USDA to act[15]; R-CALF has argued the border must stay shut until the pest is eradicated in Mexico[15]; and even USDA’s Secretary told the Senate the spread came from “the Mexican cartels with the illicit cattle traffic.”[17]

So here is the question that writes itself: if the threat is illegal cartel cattle, why is the punishment falling on the legal, inspected trade — while the business flows to the Mexican packer with the deepest documented ties to the cartel itself?

What the Record Shows About SuKarne’s Founder

This must be stated carefully, and it will be. SuKarne was founded and is led by Jesús Vizcarra Calderón.[10] The following are matters of public record, each attributed to its source:

The essential caveat, in fairness and for accuracy: Jesús Vizcarra has never been charged with or convicted of any crime. No link to the cartel has been legally established. He has denied that any illicit money ever entered his companies. These are documented allegations and associations — not proven facts — and they are presented as such.

But allegations are exactly what a border policy this consequential should weigh. We are told the closure protects America from a threat that rides in on cartel-moved cattle. The effect of that same closure is to route billions of dollars in beef business to a Mexican company whose founder sits in a Pentagon-commissioned report on cartel finance. At a minimum, the public is owed an answer: who, precisely, are we handing our market to — and did anyone at USDA ask?

VI. How We Got Here: The Closure That Won’t Lift

The closure has never behaved like science. It has behaved like politics. USDA’s own experts named Douglas, Arizona the lowest-risk port and reopened it on July 7, 2025 — about 900 head crossed. Three days later, USDA slammed it shut again, citing a screwworm case in Veracruz on the opposite side of Mexico, roughly 370 miles away (no published scientific basis as a port-closure metric) — and the reversal landed days after a coordinated lobbying campaign by R-CALF and 18 allied groups.[24]

Then the pattern set in: “not ready” in November, a teased reopening “in two to four weeks” in March, the functioning Nogales port left out of the conversation entirely.[25] By March 2026 the Secretary was no longer describing the closure as animal-health protection at all — she was calling it leverage, crediting it with making Mexico “better partners” under USDA “pressure,” “metrics,” and “accountability.”[26]

The distances don’t hold up as a standard, either. The Secretary’s public case rests on mileage — “800 miles,” “200 miles” — but USDA has never published a scientific standard that turns a distance into a port’s open-or-closed status, and its own stated criterion is a “systemwide” judgment of Mexico, not a regional one. Ask the question that ends the debate: show me the published risk assessment that turns miles into port status. No one at USDA can answer it — because it does not exist.

The Misinformation That Followed

The framing didn’t stay in the hearing room — it metastasized. After the Secretary tied the pest to “open borders” and cartels, a U.S. senator went on television and claimed migrants carried the parasite in on their pets and “flesh.” Newsweek found no evidence linking human migration to the outbreak[22]; the CDC reports zero locally acquired human cases and says screwworm is not transmitted person to person.[23] The real vector — illegal animal movement — was documented all along.[13]

VII. What the Record Shows

Put the pieces together and the shape is unmistakable. Six threads, each backed by the links above:

1. We are losing plants, jobs, and the herd itself. Tyson Lexington gone; JBS Riverside, Souderton, and Memphis; Cargill’s lockout; Lubbock Feeders closing; the herd at a 75-year low.

Read / watch the sources: [2] [1] [4] [6] [3]

2. The market is moving to Mexico. Boxed-beef exports up 23% while live cattle stay banned; a million head redirected into Mexican feedlots; Sonora building permanent capacity.

Read / watch the sources: [6] [16] [11] [12]

3. SuKarne is the prime beneficiary. ~75% of Mexican beef exports; built to expand into the U.S. retail market; already shipping six figures of tonnage north.

Read / watch the sources: [8] [9] [10]

4. The threat is illegal cartel cattle — and ranchers say so. ~800,000 head smuggled yearly with fake papers; “narco-ranching”; a 200-group coalition and USDA itself pointing at cartel traffic.

Read / watch the sources: [13] [14] [15] [16] [17]

5. The prime beneficiary has documented cartel ties. SuKarne’s founder named in a 2012 Pentagon-commissioned report on El Mayo’s financial network — with his denials, and no charges, noted.

Read / watch the sources: [20] [18] [19]

6. The closure behaves like politics, not science. Douglas reopened on the science, then reclosed on a case 370 miles away days after lobby pressure; reframed as “leverage”; the mileage standard doesn’t exist.

Read / watch the sources: [24] [25] [26]

The question, restated for anyone willing to dig: Was this ever science-based animal-health policy — or did it become a machine for moving America’s beef industry to Mexico, enriching a cartel-linked company, and raising prices on American families? The record above is enough to justify asking in public.

Sources

Every numbered claim above maps to an entry here. Links open the original article, filing, or footage.

  1. FinancialContent / Market Minute — “The Great Beef Siege” (Tyson projects up to $600M beef-segment loss; “supply desert”; JBS leans on Brazil and Australia; herd at a 75-year low; ground beef $7.85/lb; ~1.5M annual Mexican feeder cattle lost), Feb. 11, 2026. open source
  2. FinancialContent / Market Minute — USDA $100M “Grand Challenge” (Tyson closes Lexington, NE; JBS shutters Riverside, CA and cuts Midwest shifts; $400–600M beef-segment loss; ~3.3% supply reduction), Jan. 23, 2026. open source
  3. Coalition for a Prosperous America — “Why Beef Prices Are So High: America’s Cattle Industry Has Been Gutted” (retail beef +22% since Jan 2025; Choice +27%, live cattle +37%; four packers control ~85% of the fed-cattle market; weekly slaughter down 6.5% year-over-year), 2026. open source
  4. Beef Magazine — “Screwworm cases climb to 12 as futures see choppy trade” (JBS announces closure of its Souderton, PA plant, ~2,000 head/day), 2026. open source
  5. RFD-TV — “Feeder Cattle Shortage Deepens” (Texas Cattle Feeders: closed border could cost TX-OK-NM ~1 billion fewer pounds of beef in 2026; ground beef $6.70–$6.80/lb by Jan 2026), Feb. 23, 2026. open source
  6. Reuters (via U.S. News) — “Screwworm Border Closure Fuels Beef Boom in Mexico, Gloom in Texas” (Mexican beef exports to the U.S. up 23%; U.S. herd at a 75-year low; record consumer prices; Lubbock Feeders on the brink), June 6, 2026. open source
  7. Border Report — “Expect beef prices to go up … as beef from Mexico remains in short supply” (workers sort beef carcasses at an export-oriented slaughterhouse in Hermosillo; meat up ~20%; Mexican beef-export sector losing $25–$30M/month), Aug. 7, 2025. open source
  8. Western Livestock Journal — “SuKarne: the Mexican processing powerhouse” (SuKarne accounts for ~75% of all Mexican beef exports; Mexico’s largest cattle-feeding and processing company; one of the largest beef packers in North America; 96% of processed Mexican beef is destined for the U.S.). open source
  9. MEAT+POULTRY — “SuKarne’s push for the center of the plate” (first company in Mexico to move from carcasses to boxed beef; the dominant animal-protein powerhouse in Mexico; “equipped to expand its presence in the US retail market and beyond”). open source
  10. MEAT+POULTRY — “Meat Institute visits SuKarne” (SuKarne exported 110,000 tonnes of beef to the United States in 2022; Jesús Vizcarra Calderón, president and CEO), Feb. 2023. open source
  11. Capital Press — “Closed border means more Mexican beef production in 2026” (USDA report: ~1 million head redirected into Mexican feedlots; Mexican beef production forecast +6%), March 5, 2026. open source
  12. Ground News — President Sheinbaum announces an 831-million-peso program to build out high-quality meat production for Sonora ranchers, a direct response to the border closure, Sept. 2025. open source
  13. CNN — “Flesh-eating screwworm has reached the US — a comeback driven by organized crime” (researchers warned illegal cattle smuggling quickened the screwworm’s return; at ranchers’ urging, Mexico ran stings and raids to stanch illegal cattle), June 11, 2026. open source
  14. Beef Magazine — “Screwworm observations” (“The smoking gun points to drug cartel cattle. Call it narco-ranching.”; ~800,000 head smuggled across the Guatemala-Mexico border annually; “Cattle still aren’t crossing. But what about beef from Mexico?”), June 2026. open source
  15. Wisconsin State Farmer (USA Today Network) — “Officials claim cattle smuggling is fueling resurgence of NWS in Mexico” (a coalition of nearly 200 ranch/farm groups appealed to USDA to fund a domestic sterile-fly facility; Reuters: smuggled cattle enter Mexico with falsified papers and bogus ear tags; Mexican animal-health experts believe smuggling was a factor; the eradication program has saved the U.S. cattle industry an estimated $2.3B/year), Sept. 27, 2025. open source
  16. Texas Scorecard — “Texas House Lawmakers Discuss New World Screwworm Response” (TPPF’s Ammon Blair: cartels reportedly move ~800,000 head/year using fake papers, including “the laundering of smuggled cattle”; Mexican processed-beef exports to the U.S. rose 23% in early 2026; U.S. herd at a 75-year low), 2026. open source
  17. PBS NewsHour — “Political blame game follows as screwworm parasite threatens cattle in Texas” (Rollins to the Senate Ag Committee: “the Mexican cartels with the illicit cattle traffic, we knew it was coming” — said, PBS notes, without showing evidence), 2026. open source
  18. El País (English) — “Sinaloa governor’s alibi for the El Mayo scandal: a private flight, a family trip, and a controversial businessman” (coverage of Jesús Vizcarra and the Learjet used the day El Mayo Zambada was captured), Aug. 14, 2024. open source
  19. Borderland Beat — “FGR Searches Fausto Corrales’ Home” (describes SuKarne as a cattle empire belonging to the Vizcarra family; states Vizcarra has been investigated for drug trafficking and money laundering and linked for decades to El Mayo and the Sinaloa Cartel — with his repeated denials noted), Aug. 2024. open source
  20. Anabel Hernández, El Traidor (Grijalbo, 2019) — cites a 2012 U.S. Institute for Defense Analyses report, prepared for the Department of Defense, naming Jesús Vizcarra Calderón as a possible member of El Mayo Zambada’s financial network; cartel lawyer Fernando Gaxiola described Vizcarra as a close friend of El Mayo. (Spanish-language book)
  21. NewsNation (via Yahoo) — “US ag chief blames cartels, Biden for screwworm toehold in US” (Rollins to Fox News: cartels moved infected cattle north under lax border policies), 2026. open source
  22. Newsweek — “DOGE or Biden? New World Screwworm Blame Game Erupts” (a U.S. senator suggested migrants carried the pest; “no evidence has linked human migration to the current outbreak”), 2026. open source
  23. CDC — New World Screwworm situation summary (no locally acquired human infestations in the U.S.; risk to people remains very low; not transmitted person to person). open source
  24. Beef Magazine — “Cattle trade with Mexico: If you blinked, you missed it” (Douglas reopened July 7, 2025, ~900 head; a Veracruz case was reported July 8; USDA re-suspended trade July 10), July 11, 2025. open source
  25. Beef Magazine — “Back to Mexico” (the closure drags on; the functioning Nogales port is left out of the reopening discussion; a new protocol is awaited), April 13, 2026. open source
  26. Oklahoma Farm Report / Beef Buzz — Rollins says Agua Prieta/Douglas (~800 miles from the nearest case) is the likely first reopening and credits the closure with making Mexico “better partners” under USDA “pressure,” “metrics,” and “accountability,” March 30, 2026.
Every claim on this page links to its original source. Read them and decide for yourself.